As 2026 approaches, all eyes are once again on the Bank of Canada (BoC) and its interest rate announcements. After a period of steady adjustments through 2024 and 2025, the BoC has published its official 2026 schedule—dates that will shape everything from mortgage rates to Toronto’s housing market. With Toronto real estate highly sensitive to rate changes, this calendar matters to both buyers and sellers.
The 2026 Announcement Calendar
The BoC has confirmed eight interest rate decision dates in 2026 (Bank of Canada):
- January 28
- March 18
- April 29
- June 10
- July 15
- September 2
- October 28
- December 9
Each announcement is released at 9:45 a.m. ET. Four of these dates—January, April, July, and October—also come with a full Monetary Policy Report, offering deeper insight into the BoC’s outlook.
Forecasts & Drivers in 2026
So what’s at stake? As of mid-2025, the policy interest rate sits at 2.75%, with economists anticipating gradual cuts through 2025 and into 2026. Forecasts suggest we could see rates ease closer to 2.00%–2.50% by year’s end (True North Mortgage).
The key drivers the BoC will weigh:
- Inflation trends – whether price growth holds steady within the 2% target range.
- Economic growth – Canada’s GDP recovery pace, especially as tariffs and global trade pressures evolve.
- Labour markets – employment strength and wage growth as signs of consumer demand.
- Global risks – from U.S. interest rate policies to energy prices and supply chain stability.
Tracking Toronto’s Real Estate Activity
At Toronto Livings, we keep close tabs on the numbers that matter most:
- Sales activity – recent TRREB data shows summer 2025 home sales rising modestly compared to last year.
- Average prices – while sales are up, prices have faced downward pressure, with buyers negotiating more aggressively in a high-inventory market.
- Inventory & listings – more active listings mean more choice for buyers; months of inventory (MOI) is trending higher (Move Smartly).
- Condo vs. low-rise – low-rise homes have seen stronger year-over-year recovery, while the condo segment remains softer.
This real-time tracking helps us anticipate how the BoC’s decisions will ripple through Toronto’s housing market.
How Rate Changes Could Affect Toronto Real Estate in 2026
- If rates fall: Lower borrowing costs could spur demand, especially among first-time buyers and move-up families. Low-rise homes may see renewed bidding wars if affordability improves.
- If rates hold steady: Market momentum may remain muted, with price growth restrained and condos facing continued challenges.
- If cuts are slower than expected: Buyers may stay cautious, and new construction projects—already at lower than historical levels—could face further delays.
What Buyers and Sellers Should Watch For
- Key dates – mark the BoC’s eight announcements on your calendar.
- Statements & reports – focus on inflation commentary, labour market analysis, and forward guidance.
- Local market data – keep an eye on TRREB monthly updates for sales, listings, and pricing.
For buyers: staying pre-approved and watching for rate dips could provide an edge.
For sellers: higher inventory means standing out matters more than ever—pricing and presentation will be critical.
Conclusion
The BoC’s 2026 rate decisions are poised to shape not only mortgage costs but also the rhythm of Toronto’s real estate market. With forecasts leaning toward modest easing, the year could bring more opportunities for buyers while keeping sellers on their toes. We’ll continue to track the data and provide insights to help you navigate what’s ahead.
