A Cool Start to the Year—But Don’t Let That Fool You
If you judged 2025 by January alone, you might think we were in for another sluggish year. Realtors reported 3,847 home sales through TRREB’s MLS® System, which marked a 7.9% decline compared to January 2024. But zoom in and you’ll see a different story: seasonally adjusted sales actually increased from December 2024. Momentum, it seems, is starting to build.
On the supply side, there’s been a dramatic shift. New listings surged 48.6% year-over-year, reaching 12,392. This uptick suggests that sellers are feeling more confident heading into the spring market, giving buyers more options to work with.
Price Trends Show Stability, Especially for Single-Family Homes
While transaction volumes dipped, prices remained surprisingly steady. The average selling price across the GTA hit $1,040,994, up 1.5% compared to the same time last year. The MLS Home Price Index Composite Benchmark also posted a modest gain of 0.44% year-over-year.
What does this mean? In a word: balance. Condos remain plentiful and price growth is muted. But for single-family homes, especially in tight-supply pockets, values are inching upward. TRREB expects this trend to accelerate as borrowing costs continue to ease.
TRREB’s 2025 Forecast: More Sales, Moderate Price Growth
If January is the warm-up, the rest of 2025 could be the main event. TRREB forecasts 76,000 total home sales this year—a 12.4% increase over 2024. This optimism stems from one major factor: lower mortgage rates.
More affordable borrowing means more would-be buyers will step off the sidelines. TRREB anticipates the average GTA home price will reach $1,147,000 by year-end, a 2.6% bump that keeps pace with inflation.
This isn’t a return to bidding-war chaos—and that’s a good thing. It’s a sign of a healthier, more sustainable market.
The Bigger Picture: Supply, Confidence, and Collaboration
Beyond numbers, TRREB’s annual outlook highlights a structural message: Toronto needs more diverse housing.
From purpose-built rentals to townhomes and multiplexes, the GTA’s future depends on supply that fits real-world budgets. TRREB President Elechia Barry-Sproule emphasized the need for “missing middle” options, while CEO John DiMichele pointed to the hurdles: development charges, taxes, and red tape that slow down new builds.
If affordability and traffic congestion are interconnected challenges, then coordinated solutions are the only way forward. We need policy that encourages building — not barriers that stall it.
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers Right Now
With inventory up and prices still relatively stable, the early-year market presents real opportunity for both buyers and sellers.
For buyers: now is the time to revisit that mortgage pre-approval, build your wishlist, and line up financing ahead of a likely busier spring.
For sellers: increased listings mean more competition. Proper pricing, presentation, and marketing matter more than ever. If you’re thinking of moving, acting early might just give you an edge.
Curious about how these trends affect your specific neighbourhood or property type? Let’s connect—we’re always happy to translate market shifts into smart real estate moves.
Want to learn more about Toronto condo prices or explore why purpose-built rentals are gaining traction? We’ve got you covered.
