September brought a noticeable pulse back to the Greater Toronto Area housing market. TRREB reported 5,592 homes sold across the region — an 8.5% increase compared to the same time last year. This rebound comes alongside a 4% increase in new listings, with 19,260 properties entering the market.
While activity picked up, prices continued their modest retreat. The MLS Home Price Index Composite Benchmark dipped 5.5% year-over-year, while the average selling price landed at $1,059,377, down 4.7% annually. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the average price held relatively flat month-over-month (up 0.2%), while the benchmark dipped slightly (-0.5%).
With more homes for sale and increased buyer negotiation power, the market remained competitive — but not chaotic. This remains a market driven by opportunity-seeking buyers and realistic sellers.
Interest Rates & Economic Backdrop
After holding steady for months, the Bank of Canada announced a much-anticipated rate cut in September — lowering its key policy rate to 2.50%.
The move came in response to softening inflation, weaker job creation, and ongoing global trade challenges. It also provided a notable psychological and financial boost for homebuyers, many of whom had been sidelined by borrowing constraints.
Lower rates mean more manageable monthly payments — especially for variable-rate borrowers or those renewing mortgages. According to Global News, some households are now able to qualify for homes that had previously been out of reach.
Expectations are building for two more 25-bps cuts before spring 2026. If realized, this could significantly improve affordability metrics and buyer confidence.
Deep Dive: Sales, Listings & Price Trends
The September landscape was defined by:
- More sales: 5,592 transactions (up 8.5% YoY)
- More choice: 19,260 new listings (up 4% YoY)
- Lower prices: Benchmark HPI down 5.5%, average price down 4.7%
- Subtle shift: Sales up vs August, but listings down → signs of slight tightening in certain pockets
This mild tightening suggests some segments — especially entry-level freeholds and move-in-ready condos — may see more bidding activity heading into the fall.
Condo Market & Our Brokerage Lens
Here’s where things got interesting for us at Toronto Livings.
While broader TRREB data showed continued softness in the condo market, our listings told a different story. Every condo we had on the market in September sold faster than expected — often within a week, and in some cases with multiple offers.
Buyers seem to be responding to three things:
- Relative affordability: Condos offer a lower price point for end-users and investors alike.
- Inventory balance: With listings plateauing, urgency is returning.
- Renewed investor appetite: Lower rates + strong rental demand = better ROI math.
This isn’t a market-wide shift yet — but it’s a trend we’re watching closely, especially downtown and in midtown nodes like Yonge & Eglinton and Liberty Village.
What Buyers & Sellers Should Watch
For buyers:
- Affordability is trending in your favour. Lower mortgage rates = more purchasing power.
- There’s still room to negotiate. Prices are down YoY, and sellers are motivated.
For sellers:
- Well-prepped, well-priced homes are moving. Especially in the condo and mid-tier freehold space.
- Professional staging, marketing, and pricing strategy matter more than ever.
For everyone:
- Inventory may tighten further if new listings continue to slow and sales ramp up.
- October and November often bring strategic buying opportunities before the winter slowdown.
Outlook & Forecast
TRREB expects 76,000 total sales by year-end, with modest price growth returning in early 2026 — assuming more rate cuts are on the table.
But there are caveats:
- Construction activity is falling — new housing starts have slowed considerably.
- Policy coordination is lacking — TRREB is calling for better alignment between all levels of government and industry players.
- Supply chain and labour constraints continue to weigh on delivery timelines.
Still, with borrowing costs easing and buyer sentiment rising, the stage may be set for a more active close to the year.
Thinking of making a move this fall? Let’s talk — the market may offer more opportunities than you think.
