According to the calendar, spring is still weeks away. According to February’s numbers, Toronto’s housing market was already clearing its throat. Sales dipped, new listings dipped even faster, and buyers kept doing what they’ve done for months now… watching, waiting, running the numbers one more time.
But here’s the twist: not every corner of the 416 sat still. Detached and townhouse sales actually grew year-over-year, even as prices cooled. So was February a slow month, or a quiet setup for something bigger this spring? Let’s take a look!
The Numbers at a Glance
In the 416, February 2026 looked like this compared to February 2025:
- Sales: 1,491, down from 1,575 — a dip of about 5.3%
- New listings: 4,035, down from 4,991 — a decline of roughly 19.2%
- Average price: $1,019,144, down from $1,089,187 — off by about 6.4%
- MLS HPI Composite (City of Toronto): down 8.08% year-over-year, according to TRREB’s February 2026 Market Watch report
A Sales Split: Where the City Held Steady
Here’s where it gets interesting. Not every segment of the 416 told the same story last month:
- Detached homes: 437 sales, actually up 3.6% year-over-year, though average price eased to $1,568,543 (down 11.4%)
- Semi-detached: 150 sales, down 3.8%, while average price ticked up 4.6% to $1,229,853
- Townhouses: 153 sales, up 2.7%, with average price down 4.6% to $980,175
- Condo apartments: 733 sales, down 12.3% — the softest segment by far — with average price down 8.1% to $663,984
So while the condo market continues to face the most pressure on both price and demand, detached and townhouse sales actually grew year-over-year. That’s worth sitting with for a second: even in a “down” month, two of four housing types saw more buyers close deals than they did a year ago.
Why Prices and Listings Cooled
The short version? Buyers are waiting for clarity. TRREB Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer put it plainly in the board’s February release, noting that more than 100,000 GTA buyers are holding off on a purchase while they wait for prices to level off and for “positive news on the trade front” (TRREB Market Watch).
That hesitation lines up with the broader economic backdrop. The Bank of Canada opened 2026 by holding its policy rate steady at 2.25%, continuing a pause that began in December, as it weighed ongoing uncertainty around U.S. trade policy (Canadian Mortgage Professional). Steady rates are one less variable for buyers to worry about — but “steady” isn’t quite the same as “confidence-inspiring,” and that shows up in February’s listing numbers.
The Month-Over-Month Bounce
Here’s the part that didn’t make many headlines: on a month-over-month basis, every single housing type in the 416 saw sales and prices climb from January to February.
- Detached sales rose about 51% month-over-month, with average price up 1.7%
- Semi-detached sales rose about 56%, with average price up 7.3%
- Townhouse sales rose about 35%, with average price up nearly 12%
- Condo sales rose about 29%, with average price up 5.1%
Some of that is simply seasonal — January is typically the slowest month of the year. But a broad-based lift like this, across every category, is a trend to watch heading into the spring market.
Year-to-Date: Where 2026 Stands
Looking at the City of Toronto’s first two months combined, 2026 is trailing 2025:
- Sales: 2,562 vs. 2,948 (down 13.1%)
- New listings: 8,115 vs. 9,732 (down 16.6%)
- Average price: $989,346 vs. $1,041,180 (down 5.0%)
That said, TRREB’s own outlook — echoed in coverage from Storeys — points to tightening supply as a setup for stronger activity in the second half of the year, as reduced competition from new listings could eventually support both sales and pricing.
What This Means If You’re Buying or Selling
For buyers, this is still a market with real negotiating room, particularly in the condo segment where both price and competition remain soft. For sellers of detached and townhouse properties, February’s sales growth is a signal that qualified buyers are out there — even if fewer of your neighbours are listing alongside you.
Either way, timing matters more than headlines. If you’re weighing a move this spring, it’s worth getting a read on your specific pocket of the 416 before making a decision. Check out our Toronto real estate market update hub for ongoing coverage, or find out what your home is worth in today’s market. Want this kind of breakdown in your inbox every month? Sign up for our market updates and stay ahead of the curve.
