September is normally when Toronto’s real estate market wakes back up after the slower summer months. This year, however, buyers weren’t exactly rushing back.
According to TRREB’s September Market Watch, GTA home sales landed at 5,040, almost identical to August. Sellers, on the other hand, came back in force. New listings jumped by more than a third in a single month.
The result? More choice, softer prices in some segments and buyers who are perfectly happy to take their time. Let’s take a look at what the numbers tell us.
The Big Picture: Sales Steady, Supply Surges
Toronto Realtors reported 5,040 sales in September 2026. That’s down 9% compared to last year and essentially flat from August’s 5,057. In a month that usually brings a fall bounce, flat feels a little underwhelming.
Supply tells a very different story. New listings climbed to 16,500, up 36.7% month-over-month. Active listings rose 6.7% to 26,131. Interestingly, both are still well below last year’s levels, with new listings down 14.4% and active listings down 11.1% year-over-year.
On the pricing side, the average selling price came in at $1,006,409. That’s down 5.1% from last September but up 1.3% from August. Homes took an average of 51 days to sell, unchanged from the month before.
So what does this mean? Sellers are clearly testing the fall market, while buyers are taking a wait-and-see approach. For a closer look at how we got here, check out our August market recap.
Data as of TRREB’s September 2026 Market Watch, released October 2026.
By the Numbers: How Each Home Type Performed
Here’s how September shook out across the City of Toronto (416) by home type.
| Home type | Sales | Sales vs. Aug | Avg. price | Price vs. Aug | Price vs. Sept 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detached | 640 | +16.4% | $1,562,966 | +2.4% | -7.3% |
| Semi-detached | 211 | +32.7% | $1,207,884 | +8.8% | +2.2% |
| Townhouse | 189 | +14.5% | $922,445 | +15.6% | -0.8% |
| Condo apartment | 884 | -0.1% | $640,248 | -1.8% | -6.0% |
Condos: A Buyer’s Playground
Condos were the only home type that didn’t get a September lift. Sales held at 884, down 6% from last year, and the average price slipped to $640,248.
That lines up with what we’re seeing on the ground. The condo buyers we’re working with have plenty of options, and many are being selective before making a choice. With so much to choose from, there’s little pressure to rush. If you’ve been eyeing a condo, that’s a promising position to negotiate from.
Semis: The Quiet Overachiever
Semi-detached homes had the strongest month of any home type. Sales jumped 32.7% from August, and the average price rose 8.8% to $1,207,884. Semis were also the only home type to post a year-over-year price gain (+2.2%). For buyers who want freehold living without detached prices, they continue to hit a sweet spot.
Detached and Townhouses: A September Rebound
Detached sales rose 16.4% from August to 640. That said, the average price of $1,562,966 is still 7.3% below last September. Townhouses bounced back too, with prices up 15.6% after a soft August. Thinking about freehold? Browse our neighbourhood guides to see where your budget goes furthest.
What’s Keeping Buyers on the Sidelines?
If prices are softer and there’s more to choose from, why aren’t buyers jumping in? TRREB pointed to uncertainty around the economy, inflation and borrowing costs. Let’s unpack that.
Rates on Hold, but Fixed Rates Creeping Up
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on September 2, its seventh straight hold. Stability sounds reassuring, but there’s a catch. Long-term bond yields have been rising, which is already nudging fixed mortgage rates higher. Some analysts now think a rate hike could be back on the table before year-end. The next decision lands on October 28, and plenty of would-be buyers appear to be waiting for it.
Inflation and Tariff Jitters
Canada’s inflation rate held at 3.0% in August, the same as July. That sounds high, but much of it comes from elevated gas prices. Core inflation, which strips out the volatile stuff, is sitting around 2%. Add in ongoing trade uncertainty with the U.S., and it’s easy to see why some households want more clarity on their job security before taking on a mortgage.
The Ballot Box Factor: Election Day and Your Closing Costs
Ontario heads to the polls for municipal elections on October 26, and housing is one of the biggest issues on voters’ minds.
One issue worth watching is Toronto’s Municipal Land Transfer Tax (MLTT). Right now, buyers of an average-priced Toronto home who aren’t first-timers pay roughly $36,000 in combined municipal and provincial land transfer taxes. That’s cash due on closing, and it can’t be rolled into your mortgage. You can check current rates and rebates on the City of Toronto’s land transfer tax page.
Mayoral candidate Brad Bradford has pledged to waive the MLTT on the first $1.1 million of a home purchase if elected. Mayor Olivia Chow has warned that cutting the tax would lead to service cuts. Whichever way the vote goes, it could change the math for buyers in the years ahead. Will some buyers hold off until after election day to see how it plays out?
What This Means for You
September didn’t bring the usual fall rush, but it did bring something buyers haven’t had much of in recent years: leverage.
If you’re buying, this is one of the best selection windows we’ve seen in months. Condo buyers in particular can afford to be choosy, and prices remain below last year’s levels. Take your time, but be ready to act when the right place comes along.
If you’re selling, pricing and presentation matter more than ever. With more listings competing for the same pool of selective buyers, the homes that stand out are the ones priced right from day one.
So what’s next? Between the October 28 rate decision and the October 26 election, the next few weeks could bring the clarity many buyers have been waiting for. Will that finally coax them off the sidelines? We’ll be watching closely. In the meantime, if you’d like to talk through your options, get in touch with our team by sending us a message below!
