Spring has brought some welcome momentum back to the Toronto Real Estate market, and after a slow start to the year, I’m seeing that show up clearly in the May numbers. Sales are accelerating, inventory is tightening relative to demand, and prices look like they’re starting to find a floor. Here’s my read on what happened this month and what it could mean if you’re thinking about buying or selling this summer.
The Headline Numbers
6,583 homes sold across the GTA in May — up 6.3% from the 6,195 we saw in May 2025. New listings, meanwhile, fell to 17,698, down 18.9% year-over-year. More buyers, fewer new options: that combination is really the whole story of this spring.
It’s also month three of a trend. Sales rose year-over-year in March, April, and May, after dipping in January and February.
| Month | Sales | New Listings | Active Listings | Avg. Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 3,082 | 10,774 | 17,975 | $973,289 |
| February | 3,868 | 10,705 | 19,314 | $1,008,968 |
| March | 5,039 | 14,442 | 21,596 | $1,017,796 |
| April | 5,946 | 17,097 | 25,110 | $1,051,969 |
| May | 6,583 | 17,698 | 26,927 | $1,069,700 |
Seasonally adjusted, sales were up 10% over April, while new listings dipped 2.1%!
Prices: Down Year-Over-Year, But Leveling Off
The average selling price hit $1,069,700 in May which was 4.6% below last year. The broader MLS HPI Composite benchmark, which smooths out the mix of what’s actually selling, was down a steeper 6.7% year-over-year.
Here’s the more interesting part, though: on a seasonally adjusted basis, prices actually ticked up slightly month-over-month, and the pace of the year-over-year decline has been easing for a while now. If sales keep strengthening the way they have been, it could indicate we’re closer to a floor than a further slide.
Worth a caveat here: the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% for a fifth straight meeting in June, citing elevated oil prices and ongoing trade uncertainty. And fixed mortgage rates have actually crept up recently as bond yields responded to the same geopolitical noise. So while May’s affordability story leaned partly on borrowing costs, that tailwind may be less reliable heading into summer than it looked a month ago.
How the City of Toronto Performed by Home Type
Zooming into the 416 specifically, detached homes led the charge:
| Home Type | Sales (416, May 2026) | Avg. Price (416, May 2026) | YoY Sales | YoY Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detached | 846 | $1,610,988 | +8.9% | -6.5% |
| Semi-Detached | 283 | $1,293,268 | +2.5% | +0.6% |
| Townhouse | 222 | $953,982 | -17.5% | -5.5% |
| Condo Apartment | 1,009 | $673,841 | +4.2% | -5.0% |
Detached and semi-detached sales grew nicely, while townhouses pulled back… but keep in mind, this is a smaller, more volatile segment where a handful of deals can swing the percentage. Condos, the city’s most crowded category, kept selling in decent volume even as prices softened. Not exactly a comeback tour for condo pricing, but the sales activity suggests demand may be coming back (but slooooowly)
Buyers Still Have Room to Negotiate — For Now
Average days on market landed at 42 in May, down from a January high of 67. That said, homes are still taking a few days longer to sell than they did in May 2025 — which tells me buyers heading into early summer still hold some leverage. Whether that window stays open through July and August is the real question to watch.
Year-to-Date Snapshot
Through the first five months of 2026, GTA sales sit at 24,405 — essentially flat against 24,653 over the same stretch last year. New listings are the bigger story: down to 70,768 from 83,441. Fewer new homes hitting the market, roughly steady demand, that’s the recipe behind the tightening we’ve been tracking all spring.
My Take
I think May reflects real, if fragile, improvement. Buyers came back, listings didn’t keep pace, and prices are behaving like a market finding its footing rather than one still falling. Ontario’s Bill 98 received Royal Assent in early June, aiming to speed up housing approvals and lower development costs province-wide — a trend to watch for anyone thinking about the next few years of supply, not just this summer’s showings.
Will the second half of the year keep this pace up? That depends a lot on interest rates, oil prices, and whether the “affordability improving” story can hold up if borrowing costs tick the wrong way. For now, though, the numbers are a promising sign after a rough start to the year.
Curious what this means for your specific neighbourhood or situation? I’m always happy to chat — reach out anytime, or sign up for monthly market updates straight to your inbox.
