Toronto buyers didn’t need a calendar to know winter had overstayed its welcome. Between the snow, the slush, and two straight months of staying indoors, January and February were quiet for reasons that had nothing to do with mortgage rates or listing prices. Then March showed up — and so did the buyers.
The Headline: Sales Finally Turn a Corner
The Toronto Real Estate Board reported 5,039 home sales in March 2026, up 1.7% year-over-year — the first annual increase the region had seen since last September. Sales also climbed 30% month-over-month from February, which is a bigger jump than typical seasonality alone would explain. Clear roads and longer daylight hours don’t show up in a market report, but they clearly showed up in showing schedules.
TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld called it “encouraging,” noting that more GTA households appear ready to take advantage of improved affordability as the spring market gets underway. For a market that’s spent over a year in buyer’s-market territory, that’s a notable shift in tone.
What the Numbers Actually Show
Here’s March 2026 at a glance:
- Sales: 5,039 (+1.7% YoY, +30.3% MoM)
- New listings: 14,442 (-16.7% YoY, +34.9% MoM)
- Active listings: 21,596 (-8% YoY, +11.8% MoM)
- Average price: $1,017,796 (-6.7% YoY)
- MLS® HPI Composite: down 7.4% YoY
- Average days on market: 47
New listings are down sharply from last year, but sales grew faster than listings on a seasonally adjusted basis — a sign, per TRREB, that conditions are tightening even with prices still soft. In the City of Toronto specifically, 1,913 sales closed the month, up a modest 0.9% year-over-year.
That’s worth sitting with for a second: sales are up, prices are still down. As confusing as that may sound, it’s exactly what a market looks like when buyers still have the upper hand on negotiating, and are starting to use it.
Detached, Semis, Townhomes & Condos — Who’s Moving
Not every property type moved at the same pace:
| Home Type | March 2026 Sales | Average Price |
|---|---|---|
| Detached | 574 | $1,613,066 |
| Semi-Detached | 170 | $1,231,967 |
| Townhouse | 207 | $959,513 |
| Condo Apartment | 951 | $648,287 |
Condos remained the highest-volume segment by sales count, but they’re also where price softness has been most persistent (a pattern that’s held for much of the past year). Detached homes, by contrast, continue to command a premium and have held their value more consistently. If you’ve been eyeing the condo market, this could be one of those “trend to watch” moments worth keeping an eye on through the spring.
Why Buyers Still Hold the Cards
Two things kept affordability front and centre in March. First, the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on March 18 — its second hold of the year — with inflation easing to 1.8% and the labour market still soft. That stability (for now) means borrowing costs aren’t adding new pressure on top of already-cautious buyers.
Second, buyers simply have more room to negotiate than they’ve had in years. TRREB’s Jason Mercer put it plainly: buyers continued to benefit from “substantial negotiating power” on price, which is exactly why average and benchmark prices are still down year-over-year even as sales pick up. If you’re a first-time buyer trying to figure out how far your down payment can stretch, tools like the FHSA are worth another look in this kind of market.
What’s Next — Spring Outlook
Not every forecast is popping champagne just yet. TD Economics recently trimmed its 2026 outlook, now expecting sales to dip slightly and prices to ease modestly nationally — a notable pullback from its earlier call for solid gains in both sales and price. That’s a fair reminder that one good month doesn’t undo a year of caution.
That said, March gave us something worth watching: sales growing faster than listings, buyers stepping off the sidelines, and the first real signs of seasonal momentum. If that trend holds through April and May, this could be the point where selling prices start to level off rather than keep sliding. Will it stick? Toronto’s spring market has surprised us before.
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