A Stronger Summer Showing
The Toronto real estate market delivered its strongest July sales performance since 2021 — a welcome shift after a slow start to the year. According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), 6,100 homes were sold across the GTA last month. That’s a 10.9% increase over July 2024.
New listings also climbed to 17,613, up 5.7% year-over-year. But with sales rising faster than listings, the market saw a modest tightening — signalling that more buyers are finding opportunities to jump in.
Are Prices Still Falling?
Yes — but there’s more to the story.
The MLS®Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark was down 5.4% compared to last year, while the average selling price dropped 5.5% to $1,051,719.
Month-over-month, prices held steady — suggesting the bottoming-out trend we started to see in June may be sticking around.
“Improved affordability, brought about by lower home prices and borrowing costs, is starting to translate into increased home sales,” said TRREB President Elechia Barry-Sproule.
On the Ground: More Buyers, Faster Sales
From what we’re seeing firsthand — buyers are back.
Between back-to-back interest rate cuts earlier in 2025 and greater affordability in key segments (especially entry-level condos and townhomes), buyer activity is up. Homes are selling faster, showing traffic has picked up, and serious buyers are making moves.
This is the second month in a row that sales have outpaced new listings on a seasonally adjusted basis — a trend worth watching as we head into the fall market.
Rate Relief & Economic Outlook
While the Bank of Canada held its key rate at 4.25% in July, economists expect another cut may be on the table this fall (September is the next meeting).
Mortgage rates have already reacted, with many 5-year fixed options dipping below 5% — making ownership slightly more attainable for buyers who were previously priced out.
But the economic picture remains mixed. As TRREB’s Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer notes:
“Recent data suggest that the Canadian economy is treading water… further interest rate cuts would spur home sales and see more spin-off expenditures, positively impacting the economy and job growth.”
What About the Foreign Buyer Ban?
Despite its name, the foreign buyer ban isn’t an outright block. There are several exemptions that allow non-residents to purchase real estate in Canada, including:
- Multi-unit buildings with 4+ units
- Vacant land and development parcels
- Recreational and rural properties
- Purchases by international students and temporary workers under defined rules
This is important context for developers and investors looking at multiplex conversions or purpose-built rentals.
Key Stats at a Glance (July 2025)
| Metric | Value | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| Home Sales (GTA) | 6,100 | +10.9% |
| New Listings | 17,613 | +5.7% |
| Avg. Selling Price | $1,051,719 | -5.5% |
| MLS® HPI Composite | — | -5.4% |
| BoC Key Interest Rate | 4.25% | — |
| 5-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates | ~4.89% | Lower than 2024 |
What Buyers and Sellers Should Know Right Now
For Buyers:
- Timing is on your side. With prices flat month-over-month and rates slowly trending down, conditions are more favourable than they’ve been in years.
- Competition is still manageable, but we expect that to shift as fall approaches — don’t sleep on pre-approval and fast decision-making.
- Condos and townhomes are heating up, especially in midtown and west-end pockets. If you’ve been on the sidelines, now’s the time to revisit your strategy.
For Sellers:
- Pricing matters more than ever. Overpricing is a fast track to stagnation — strategic pricing is key in this transitional market.
- Presentation counts. With more motivated buyers, staging, pre-inspections, and marketing make a real difference.
- We’re seeing faster sales for homes that show well and are priced right — especially in walkable, transit-connected neighbourhoods.
Final Thoughts
Affordability is improving. Buyer confidence is growing. And if July’s numbers are any indication, we’re moving toward a more balanced market.
With fall just around the corner, there’s likely more activity — and more competition — to come.
If you’re planning to buy, sell, or just want to know how the shifting market affects your next move, reach out to us here.
Want a better sense of your home’s current value? Get your free evaluation and we’ll show you what today’s buyers are paying.
