Real estate in Toronto took another small step toward affordability in June. With borrowing costs and average selling prices still trailing last year’s levels, more buyers are beginning to test the waters—even if many are still playing the waiting game.
The housing market showed further signs of recovery in June, as buyers benefited from a growing number of listings. With more inventory to choose from, many were able to negotiate below asking prices—an early sign that market leverage is beginning to tip back toward buyers.
Sales and Listings: Market Gains Traction (Sort Of)
Realtors reported 6,243 sales through the MLS System in June—a modest 2.4% dip compared to June 2024. However, new listings jumped 7.7% year-over-year, reaching 19,839 properties.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales were up compared to May 2025, while new listings were down. That combination—more buying activity and slightly less inventory—continues the tightening trend we saw take shape this spring.
Inventory vs. Demand: Are We Headed for Balance?
Month-over-month momentum looks promising, but economic jitters still weigh on decision-making. Many households are hesitant to dive in until they feel more secure about their jobs, rates, and the overall direction of the economy. Still, as inventory tapers and options dwindle, that hesitation could turn into competition sooner than later.
What’s Happening with Prices?
Condos Reach New High for 2025
While overall prices in the GTA trended downward, the condo segment quietly notched a win in June. The average condo price rose to $731,232—the highest it’s been all year. That’s up from $709,905 in May and significantly higher than where the year started at $691,039.
This steady upward trend—especially with June breaking the ceiling—could be an early signal of shifting demand. With lower entry points than detached homes and improved affordability, condos might be the segment to watch as momentum builds through summer.
Detached Prices Cool Off After Strong Start
Detached homes, meanwhile, saw a different trajectory in the first half of 2025. After peaking in February at $1,782,262, average prices for detached properties have gradually softened, settling at $1,641,868 in June. While still higher than January’s average of $1,579,386, the trend suggests a gradual cooldown from earlier highs.
Buyers in the detached segment may find more room to negotiate as prices ease off their earlier highs, especially with higher-carrying costs still weighing on the top end of the market.
Semi-Detached Homes Show Seasonal Resilience
Semi-detached properties had a relatively stable run through the first half of 2025. While they haven’t reached a new peak since March’s high of $1,337,498, June’s average price of $1,278,434 still sits comfortably above where the year began.
The numbers suggest a segment that’s holding firm despite broader market softening—offering a middle ground between affordability and space that continues to resonate with move-up buyers.
Townhomes Ride the Seasonal Wave
Townhomes had a mixed performance in the first half of 2025, with prices fluctuating month to month. After peaking in February at $1,028,339, the average townhome price slid back to $957,605 in June. While that’s still above January’s average of $941,893, the segment appears more sensitive to broader affordability pressures.
For buyers, this could present a timely opportunity—especially for those seeking more space than a condo offers but without stretching to a detached price point.
Overall Price Summary
June’s average selling price landed at $1,101,691, representing a 5.4% drop year-over-year. The MLS Home Price Index Composite Benchmark also dipped 5.5% compared to June 2024. Month-over-month? Both the average price and HPI edged slightly lower from May.
This downward pressure on pricing isn’t new—it’s been with us for several months—but it continues to create an entry point for buyers who were previously priced out.
Price Chart – YoY and MoM Breakdown
| Metric | June 2024 | May 2025 | June 2025 | % Change YoY | % Change MoM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Price | $1,164,714 | $1,110,905 | $1,101,691 | -5.4% | -0.8% |
What’s Fueling (or Delaying) the Recovery?
The market isn’t just reacting to supply and demand—it’s heavily influenced by macroeconomic factors. According to TRREB CIO Jason Mercer, a firm U.S. trade deal and two more expected rate cuts could help “make monthly mortgage payments more comfortable for average GTA households.” That added affordability, paired with improved consumer confidence, could push the recovery into higher gear.
But as of now, buyers are taking their time. Inflation progress has been choppy, and many are still skeptical that rates will come down fast enough to offset homeownership risks.
What Buyers and Sellers Should Know Right Now
For Buyers:
- More listings mean more choice—and leverage.
- Sellers are increasingly open to negotiation.
- Lower borrowing costs = better affordability, even if only modestly improved.
For Sellers:
- Price competitively to attract attention.
- The tightening trend could benefit well-prepared listings.
- With some buyers still on the sidelines, it’s not a frenzy—but serious shoppers are out there.
Final Thoughts: Recovery in Progress, but Far from Over
June continued the pattern we’ve seen throughout spring—a cautious, buyer-empowered market where affordability is slowly improving, but uncertainty still clouds the outlook. The next few months will be crucial. If confidence improves and rates continue to ease, Toronto’s real estate market could be poised for a steadier rebound – but who knows!
Curious what this means for your next move? Reach out by dropping us a message below—we’ll help you navigate the numbers and the nuance.
