Mark Savel

Let’s kick things off with some good news: homeownership in the GTA just got a little more affordable. Compared to March 2024, borrowing costs are down, home prices have dipped, and monthly payments are easing. For would-be buyers, that’s a welcome shift after years of relentless price growth and tight supply. Sounds like a win, right?

Well… yes and no.

Inventory Surges While Sales Slow

According to TRREB, 5,011 homes sold in March 2025 — a sharp 23.1% decline compared to the same time last year. Meanwhile, 17,263 new listings hit the market, representing a 28.6% year-over-year increase. That’s a notable rise in inventory, but fewer transactions are closing.

This growing disconnect between supply and demand signals a deeper shift in buyer behaviour. Whether it’s higher interest rates earlier in the year, uncertainty around employment, or just the overwhelming number of options, buyers are taking their time. They’re comparing, calculating, and — more often than not — waiting.

“Once consumers feel confident in the economy and their job security, home buying activity should improve,” said TRREB President Elechia Barry-Sproule.

In other words, this is more about psychology than pricing. Confidence — or the lack of it — continues to shape how and when deals get done.

Prices Dip, Then Flatten

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark dropped 3.8% year-over-year, while the average selling price landed at $1,093,254, a 2.5% decline from March 2024.

Month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis? Prices were essentially flat. That stability could suggest we’re nearing the bottom of the current price cycle. While that doesn’t mean prices will suddenly rebound, it does imply we may be entering a phase of price normalization, where the swings aren’t as dramatic — at least for now.

Across the GTA, pockets of opportunity are emerging. Detached homes in outer-416 zones, for instance, are seeing greater price flexibility. And for first-time buyers? Smaller condos, especially in older buildings, may offer better value than they have in recent memory.

More Affordable, But Buyers Are Cautious

The silver lining this month is clear: affordability has improved. With lower borrowing costs, more listings to choose from, and sellers increasingly open to negotiation, buyers have the kind of leverage that was virtually unheard of just a few years ago.

Yet many are still cautious. Why?

Between federal election buzz, trade policy uncertainty, sticky inflation, and concerns about job security, it’s a cocktail of hesitation. Add in memories of recent market volatility — and for some, declining home equity — and it makes sense that people want to be sure before making big moves.

“Home buyers need to feel their employment situation is solid before committing to monthly mortgage payments over the long term,” added TRREB’s Jason Mercer.

Anecdotally, we’re seeing more conditional offers, longer decision cycles, and increased reliance on financial advisors and mortgage pre-approvals. This isn’t panic — it’s prudence. And in today’s market, that mindset is driving the tempo.

What We’re Watching This Spring

• Interest Rate Decisions – Expected cuts from the Bank of Canada could further ease borrowing pressure. If rates fall meaningfully, expect renewed interest in the detached segment.
• Election Promises – Housing is a key issue across party platforms. Will that turn into meaningful action? Policy clarity could push more buyers off the fence.
• Buyer Sentiment – Confidence is still the wildcard. If job numbers remain strong and inflation cools, momentum could shift quickly. Until then, a cautious optimism prevails.
• Investor Activity – With prices soft and rents holding, some investors are eyeing re-entry — particularly in mid-rise buildings and transit-connected nodes.
• Spring Showings Volume – Foot traffic at open houses is up, but conversions remain slow. If we see a rise in accepted offers heading into May, that may mark a true turning point.

Final Thoughts

Yes, affordability is improving and options are expanding. But for now, many buyers are keeping their hands in their pockets. That said, markets like this can create rare opportunities — especially for those willing to move when others wait.

If you’re thinking about buying, selling, or just want to understand where you stand, let’s talk. Whether you’re upsizing, downsizing, or exploring a new neighbourhood, we’ll walk you through what’s moving (and what’s not) — and help you navigate every step with clarity.