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Aug 07

Toronto Real Estate Market Update: July 2026

By Mark Savel Monthly Market Updates

The World Cup crowds have cleared out of Exhibition Place, BMO Field is back to being BMO Field, and Toronto’s real estate market spent July doing what it does best: quietly tightening, month after month, without much fanfare 🙁

This latest monthly market update covers the sixth straight month of that trend, and while sales cooled slightly from June’s post-tournament rush, there was some welcomed excitement in condo world!

The Headline Numbers

Here’s how the year has unfolded so far:

Month	Sales	New Listings	Active Listings	Avg. Price
January	3,082	10,774	17,975	$973,289
February	3,868	10,705	19,314	$1,008,968
March	5,039	14,442	21,596	$1,017,796
April	5,946	17,097	25,110	$1,051,969
May	6,583	17,698	26,927	$1,069,700
June	6,770	17,282	27,329	$1,058,658
July	5,995	14,484	26,098	$1,003,956

Toronto and GTA realtors reported 5,995 sales in July, which was essentially flat compared to July 2025 (down just 0.9%), while new listings fell sharply, down 17.8% year-over-year. Month-over-month, sales eased 11.5% and new listings dropped 16.2%, which is a normal summer slowdown — but new listings pulled back even faster than sales did, and that’s the part worth paying attention to.

Prices: Getting Closer to Level

The average selling price came in at $1,003,956 in July, down 4.5% from a year ago. That’s a familiar gap by now, but the trend underneath it keeps improving: the MLS HPI Composite benchmark was down 4.6% year-over-year, a smaller decline than June’s 5.4%, and the smallest we’ve seen in months.

TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld put it plainly: with sales now making up a bigger share of listings, buyers have less room to negotiate than they did earlier this year, and prices could start to level off if that pattern holds. TRREB’s Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer added a more optimistic note: recent readings on economic growth and jobs have surprised to the upside, which could help nudge more buyers off the sidelines this fall, especially if prices finish stabilizing.

How Each Home Type Performed (City of Toronto)

In the City of Toronto, 2,242 homes sold in July — up 2.4% from 2,190 a year ago — at an average price of $1,010,836, down 3.3% from July 2025. New listings fell hard, down 17.2% year-over-year to 4,980.

By home type within the 416:

Home Type	July Sales (416)	Avg. Price (416)	Sales vs. July 2025
Detached	691	$1,547,928	+2.4%
Semi-Detached	233	$1,122,326	-7.5%
Townhouse	249	$867,635	+7.8%
Condo Apartment	1,054	$672,807	+2.5%

Condos deserve their own callout this month. At $672,807, July was the segment’s second-strongest average price of the year — trailing only May’s $673,841. And with 1,054 units sold, this marks the fourth consecutive month that Toronto condo sales have topped 1,000 (April: 1,054; May: 1,009; June: 1,124; July: 1,054). For a segment that spent most of the last two years as the market’s slowest mover, four straight months of sustained demand is trend we hope to see continue into the fall market.

Toronto Real Estate Market Update: July 2026

Rates Hold Again — Six in a Row

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on July 15 — the sixth consecutive hold. The Bank’s language struck a slightly more upbeat tone than earlier in the year: growth is picking up, and inflation is expected to ease gradually, though risks tied to the Middle East conflict and U.S. trade policy remain on the radar. The next scheduled announcement is September 2.

Year-to-Date Snapshot

Through the first seven months of 2026, GTA sales sit at 37,105 — up slightly from 36,891 over the same stretch in 2025. New listings remain the bigger story: down to 102,566 from 120,911, a drop of more than 15%. Average price for the year so far is $1,032,207, down 5.1% from 2025’s YTD figure.

My Take

Six straight rate holds, a shrinking price decline, and a condo segment that’s finally showing signs of life are all trends we’re glad to be seeing. New listings falling faster than sales is exactly the kind of setup that tends to firm up prices, and if the improving economic data Mercer pointed to keeps holding, don’t be surprised if the “leveling off” TRREB has been forecasting shows up before the year is out… provided no new curve balls are delivered from our neighbours in the south.

For buyers, the message hasn’t changed much: conditions are still workable, but they won’t stay this way indefinitely. For sellers — especially in the condo space — the data suggests confidence is warranted, however pricing remains the most important element to get right!

Curious what this means for your specific neighbourhood or situation? I’m always happy to chat, reach out anytime, or sign up for monthly market updates straight to your inbox.

Jun 01

Love0

Toronto Real Estate Market Update: May 2026

By Mark Savel Monthly Market Updates

Spring has brought some welcome momentum back to the Toronto Real Estate market, and after a slow start to the year, I’m seeing that show up clearly in the May numbers. Sales are accelerating, inventory is tightening relative to demand, and prices look like they’re starting to find a floor. Here’s my read on what happened this month and what it could mean if you’re thinking about buying or selling this summer.

The Headline Numbers

6,583 homes sold across the GTA in May — up 6.3% from the 6,195 we saw in May 2025. New listings, meanwhile, fell to 17,698, down 18.9% year-over-year. More buyers, fewer new options: that combination is really the whole story of this spring.

It’s also month three of a trend. Sales rose year-over-year in March, April, and May, after dipping in January and February.

Month	Sales	New Listings	Active Listings	Avg. Price
January	3,082	10,774	17,975	$973,289
February	3,868	10,705	19,314	$1,008,968
March	5,039	14,442	21,596	$1,017,796
April	5,946	17,097	25,110	$1,051,969
May	6,583	17,698	26,927	$1,069,700

Seasonally adjusted, sales were up 10% over April, while new listings dipped 2.1%!

Prices: Down Year-Over-Year, But Leveling Off

The average selling price hit $1,069,700 in May which was 4.6% below last year. The broader MLS HPI Composite benchmark, which smooths out the mix of what’s actually selling, was down a steeper 6.7% year-over-year.

Here’s the more interesting part, though: on a seasonally adjusted basis, prices actually ticked up slightly month-over-month, and the pace of the year-over-year decline has been easing for a while now. If sales keep strengthening the way they have been, it could indicate we’re closer to a floor than a further slide.

Worth a caveat here: the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% for a fifth straight meeting in June, citing elevated oil prices and ongoing trade uncertainty. And fixed mortgage rates have actually crept up recently as bond yields responded to the same geopolitical noise. So while May’s affordability story leaned partly on borrowing costs, that tailwind may be less reliable heading into summer than it looked a month ago.

How the City of Toronto Performed by Home Type

Zooming into the 416 specifically, detached homes led the charge:

Home Type	Sales (416, May 2026)	Avg. Price (416, May 2026)	YoY Sales	YoY Price
Detached	846	$1,610,988	+8.9%	-6.5%
Semi-Detached	283	$1,293,268	+2.5%	+0.6%
Townhouse	222	$953,982	-17.5%	-5.5%
Condo Apartment	1,009	$673,841	+4.2%	-5.0%

Detached and semi-detached sales grew nicely, while townhouses pulled back… but keep in mind, this is a smaller, more volatile segment where a handful of deals can swing the percentage. Condos, the city’s most crowded category, kept selling in decent volume even as prices softened. Not exactly a comeback tour for condo pricing, but the sales activity suggests demand may be coming back (but slooooowly)

Buyers Still Have Room to Negotiate — For Now

Average days on market landed at 42 in May, down from a January high of 67. That said, homes are still taking a few days longer to sell than they did in May 2025 — which tells me buyers heading into early summer still hold some leverage. Whether that window stays open through July and August is the real question to watch.

Year-to-Date Snapshot

Through the first five months of 2026, GTA sales sit at 24,405 — essentially flat against 24,653 over the same stretch last year. New listings are the bigger story: down to 70,768 from 83,441. Fewer new homes hitting the market, roughly steady demand, that’s the recipe behind the tightening we’ve been tracking all spring.

My Take

I think May reflects real, if fragile, improvement. Buyers came back, listings didn’t keep pace, and prices are behaving like a market finding its footing rather than one still falling. Ontario’s Bill 98 received Royal Assent in early June, aiming to speed up housing approvals and lower development costs province-wide — a trend to watch for anyone thinking about the next few years of supply, not just this summer’s showings.

Will the second half of the year keep this pace up? That depends a lot on interest rates, oil prices, and whether the “affordability improving” story can hold up if borrowing costs tick the wrong way. For now, though, the numbers are a promising sign after a rough start to the year.

Curious what this means for your specific neighbourhood or situation? I’m always happy to chat — reach out anytime, or sign up for monthly market updates straight to your inbox.

Apr 03

Love0

Toronto Real Estate Market Update: March 2026

By Mark Savel Monthly Market Updates

Toronto buyers didn’t need a calendar to know winter had overstayed its welcome. Between the snow, the slush, and two straight months of staying indoors, January and February were quiet for reasons that had nothing to do with mortgage rates or listing prices. Then March showed up — and so did the buyers.

The Headline: Sales Finally Turn a Corner

The Toronto Real Estate Board reported 5,039 home sales in March 2026, up 1.7% year-over-year — the first annual increase the region had seen since last September. Sales also climbed 30% month-over-month from February, which is a bigger jump than typical seasonality alone would explain. Clear roads and longer daylight hours don’t show up in a market report, but they clearly showed up in showing schedules.

TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld called it “encouraging,” noting that more GTA households appear ready to take advantage of improved affordability as the spring market gets underway. For a market that’s spent over a year in buyer’s-market territory, that’s a notable shift in tone.

What the Numbers Actually Show

Here’s March 2026 at a glance:

Sales: 5,039 (+1.7% YoY, +30.3% MoM)
New listings: 14,442 (-16.7% YoY, +34.9% MoM)
Active listings: 21,596 (-8% YoY, +11.8% MoM)
Average price: $1,017,796 (-6.7% YoY)
MLS® HPI Composite: down 7.4% YoY
Average days on market: 47

New listings are down sharply from last year, but sales grew faster than listings on a seasonally adjusted basis — a sign, per TRREB, that conditions are tightening even with prices still soft. In the City of Toronto specifically, 1,913 sales closed the month, up a modest 0.9% year-over-year.

That’s worth sitting with for a second: sales are up, prices are still down. As confusing as that may sound, it’s exactly what a market looks like when buyers still have the upper hand on negotiating, and are starting to use it.

Detached, Semis, Townhomes & Condos — Who’s Moving

Not every property type moved at the same pace:

Home Type	March 2026 Sales	Average Price
Detached	574	$1,613,066
Semi-Detached	170	$1,231,967
Townhouse	207	$959,513
Condo Apartment	951	$648,287

Condos remained the highest-volume segment by sales count, but they’re also where price softness has been most persistent (a pattern that’s held for much of the past year). Detached homes, by contrast, continue to command a premium and have held their value more consistently. If you’ve been eyeing the condo market, this could be one of those “trend to watch” moments worth keeping an eye on through the spring.

Why Buyers Still Hold the Cards

Two things kept affordability front and centre in March. First, the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on March 18 — its second hold of the year — with inflation easing to 1.8% and the labour market still soft. That stability (for now) means borrowing costs aren’t adding new pressure on top of already-cautious buyers.

Second, buyers simply have more room to negotiate than they’ve had in years. TRREB’s Jason Mercer put it plainly: buyers continued to benefit from “substantial negotiating power” on price, which is exactly why average and benchmark prices are still down year-over-year even as sales pick up. If you’re a first-time buyer trying to figure out how far your down payment can stretch, tools like the FHSA are worth another look in this kind of market.

What’s Next — Spring Outlook

Not every forecast is popping champagne just yet. TD Economics recently trimmed its 2026 outlook, now expecting sales to dip slightly and prices to ease modestly nationally — a notable pullback from its earlier call for solid gains in both sales and price. That’s a fair reminder that one good month doesn’t undo a year of caution.

That said, March gave us something worth watching: sales growing faster than listings, buyers stepping off the sidelines, and the first real signs of seasonal momentum. If that trend holds through April and May, this could be the point where selling prices start to level off rather than keep sliding. Will it stick? Toronto’s spring market has surprised us before.

For the full monthly breakdown as it happens, head over to our market update hub or sign up for our monthly market updates so you’re never caught off guard.

Mar 03

Love0

Toronto Real Estate Market Update: February 2026

By Mark Savel Monthly Market Updates

According to the calendar, spring is still weeks away. According to February’s numbers, Toronto’s housing market was already clearing its throat. Sales dipped, new listings dipped even faster, and buyers kept doing what they’ve done for months now… watching, waiting, running the numbers one more time.

But here’s the twist: not every corner of the 416 sat still. Detached and townhouse sales actually grew year-over-year, even as prices cooled. So was February a slow month, or a quiet setup for something bigger this spring? Let’s take a look!

The Numbers at a Glance

In the 416, February 2026 looked like this compared to February 2025:

Sales: 1,491, down from 1,575 — a dip of about 5.3%
New listings: 4,035, down from 4,991 — a decline of roughly 19.2%
Average price: $1,019,144, down from $1,089,187 — off by about 6.4%
MLS HPI Composite (City of Toronto): down 8.08% year-over-year, according to TRREB’s February 2026 Market Watch report

A Sales Split: Where the City Held Steady

Here’s where it gets interesting. Not every segment of the 416 told the same story last month:

Detached homes: 437 sales, actually up 3.6% year-over-year, though average price eased to $1,568,543 (down 11.4%)
Semi-detached: 150 sales, down 3.8%, while average price ticked up 4.6% to $1,229,853
Townhouses: 153 sales, up 2.7%, with average price down 4.6% to $980,175
Condo apartments: 733 sales, down 12.3% — the softest segment by far — with average price down 8.1% to $663,984

So while the condo market continues to face the most pressure on both price and demand, detached and townhouse sales actually grew year-over-year. That’s worth sitting with for a second: even in a “down” month, two of four housing types saw more buyers close deals than they did a year ago.

Why Prices and Listings Cooled

The short version? Buyers are waiting for clarity. TRREB Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer put it plainly in the board’s February release, noting that more than 100,000 GTA buyers are holding off on a purchase while they wait for prices to level off and for “positive news on the trade front” (TRREB Market Watch).

That hesitation lines up with the broader economic backdrop. The Bank of Canada opened 2026 by holding its policy rate steady at 2.25%, continuing a pause that began in December, as it weighed ongoing uncertainty around U.S. trade policy (Canadian Mortgage Professional). Steady rates are one less variable for buyers to worry about — but “steady” isn’t quite the same as “confidence-inspiring,” and that shows up in February’s listing numbers.

The Month-Over-Month Bounce

Here’s the part that didn’t make many headlines: on a month-over-month basis, every single housing type in the 416 saw sales and prices climb from January to February.

Detached sales rose about 51% month-over-month, with average price up 1.7%
Semi-detached sales rose about 56%, with average price up 7.3%
Townhouse sales rose about 35%, with average price up nearly 12%
Condo sales rose about 29%, with average price up 5.1%

Some of that is simply seasonal — January is typically the slowest month of the year. But a broad-based lift like this, across every category, is a trend to watch heading into the spring market.

Year-to-Date: Where 2026 Stands

Looking at the City of Toronto’s first two months combined, 2026 is trailing 2025:

Sales: 2,562 vs. 2,948 (down 13.1%)
New listings: 8,115 vs. 9,732 (down 16.6%)
Average price: $989,346 vs. $1,041,180 (down 5.0%)

That said, TRREB’s own outlook — echoed in coverage from Storeys — points to tightening supply as a setup for stronger activity in the second half of the year, as reduced competition from new listings could eventually support both sales and pricing.

What This Means If You’re Buying or Selling

For buyers, this is still a market with real negotiating room, particularly in the condo segment where both price and competition remain soft. For sellers of detached and townhouse properties, February’s sales growth is a signal that qualified buyers are out there — even if fewer of your neighbours are listing alongside you.

Either way, timing matters more than headlines. If you’re weighing a move this spring, it’s worth getting a read on your specific pocket of the 416 before making a decision. Check out our Toronto real estate market update hub for ongoing coverage, or find out what your home is worth in today’s market. Want this kind of breakdown in your inbox every month? Sign up for our market updates and stay ahead of the curve.

Feb 04

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January 2026 Real Estate Market Update

By Mark Savel Monthly Market Updates

A Cold and Cautious Start to 2026

January is always a difficult month to read too much into — and January 2026 came with a few extra asterisks. In addition to the usual post‑holiday slowdown, Toronto experienced two significant snowfalls and extended stretches of freezing temperatures which resulted in fewer showings and delayed listings.

With that in mind, January should be viewed less as a verdict on the year ahead and more as an early signal of how buyers and sellers are behaving under current conditions.

The January 2026 Snapshot

Sales across the Toronto market totalled 3,082 transactions in January, reflecting a year‑over‑year decline. New listings came in at 10,774, also down compared to last January, while active listings remained elevated at 17,975.

The average selling price finished the month at $973,289, down year‑over‑year (the time we saw a monthly average this low was November 2023 – cue the headlines), while average days on market stretched to 67 days — a noticeable increase that reinforces the slower pace of decision‑making across the market.

Sales & Inventory: Supply Still Setting the Pace

Sales softened again in January, but seasonality, affordability pressures, and weather all played a role. What’s more telling is that inventory remains relatively high for this time of year, keeping buyers firmly in control of timing and negotiations.

The increase in average days on market reinforces that point. Homes are taking longer to sell not because buyers aren’t looking, but because they’re willing to wait — and often pass — unless pricing and presentation align.

For buyers, this environment continues to offer leverage. For sellers, the margin for error on pricing is thinner than it’s been in years!

Market Breakdown by Property Type

Detached Homes

Detached homes recorded 290 sales in January, with an average selling price of $1,541,791. While sales volumes were softer compared to last January, pricing proved more resilient than in other segments. End‑users continue to dominate this category, particularly in established neighbourhoods where long‑term value remains the priority.

Buyers are taking their time and negotiating harder, especially on homes that need work. Sellers who priced realistically and prepared their homes well were still able to transact, while aspirational pricing struggled to gain traction — and in some cases, attracted no showings at all.

Semi‑Detached Homes

Semi‑detached homes saw 96 sales in January, with an average selling price of $1,146,188. This segment remained one of the more stable areas of the market, supported by move‑up buyers and families seeking freehold ownership without detached‑home pricing.

That said, stability does not mean immunity. Buyers are still value‑driven, and pricing accuracy matters. Well‑located semis continue to perform best, while over‑priced listings face longer market times.

Townhouses

Townhouses posted 113 sales in January, with an average selling price of $876,585. Sales were softer relative to both semis and detached homes, reflecting buyer hesitation and increased comparison shopping across property types.

For buyers, this has translated into increased choice and negotiating room. For sellers, positioning against both condos below and semis above is increasingly important.

Condo Apartments

Condo apartments accounted for the largest share of total sales in January, with 568 transactions, but they also told the clearest story of price adjustment. The average condo selling price declined to $624,886 — a level not seen since January 2021.

Investor hesitation, higher carrying costs, and financing conditions continue to weigh on this segment. At the same time, end‑users are finding more selection and leverage than they’ve had in years.

For buyers, this remains the most opportunity‑rich segment of the market. For sellers, patience or sharp pricing is required — rarely both.

Economic & Rate Backdrop

The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate steady in January, maintaining the current borrowing environment. However, several major banks are forecasting the possibility of rate increases later in 2026.

That expectation alone is influencing behaviour. Buyers are factoring future affordability into decisions today, while sellers are adjusting expectations based on what financing may look like later in the year.

Rates may not be moving — but expectations are.

What January Sets Up for the Months Ahead

January rarely sets the tone for the full year, but it does reveal behaviour. As weather improves and spring approaches, February and March will be far more telling.

Key indicators to watch include:

Whether sales volume begins to accelerate
How quickly new listings are absorbed
Whether condo inventory continues to build

A shift in any of these areas would signal a change in leverage.

Bottom Line

January 2026 delivered a market that rewards realism. Buyers have time and choice, but the best opportunities won’t last indefinitely. Sellers can still succeed — but strategy, pricing, and preparation matter more than optimism.

If you’re thinking about buying or selling in the year ahead, understanding how these conditions affect your specific property type and neighbourhood is key. We help clients make sense of the data, set realistic expectations, and move with confidence — whether that means acting quickly or waiting for the right moment.

If you’d like to talk through your plans for 2026, we’re always happy to help… send us a message below!

Jan 13

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Toronto Real Estate Over 45 Years: What the Long-Term Data Really Tells Us

By Mark Savel Advice For Buyers

Every market cycle produces its own headlines. Prices are up. Prices are down. Buyers are waiting. Sellers are hesitant. What often gets lost in the noise is perspective — and that’s exactly what long-term data provides.

The historic TRREB MLS System data, stretching back more than four decades, offers a rare opportunity to step back and see Toronto real estate the way it actually behaves over time: cyclical, uneven, occasionally emotional — but remarkably resilient. For buyers trying to time the market, this kind of context matters far more than any single year or rate announcement.

TRREB MLS System Sales and Average Price

Toronto Real Estate Has Always Moved in Cycles — Not Straight Lines

Looking back to the 1980s and early 1990s, it becomes clear that volatility is not a modern invention. Prices rose sharply in the late 1980s, peaked around 1989–1990, and then corrected through the early 1990s. What followed wasn’t a quick bounce, but a prolonged period of stagnation and slow recovery.

For buyers at the time, this was uncomfortable. But zooming out, that cycle didn’t derail the long-term trajectory. It reinforced a recurring pattern: Toronto real estate doesn’t move in straight lines. It advances in waves, with pauses that feel dramatic in the moment but look measured in hindsight.

The key takeaway for today’s buyers is simple — waiting for a perfectly smooth entry point has never been realistic. The market has always rewarded patience and planning more than precision timing.

Sales Volume Tells the Story Buyers Often Ignore

Prices tend to get all the attention, but sales volume often provides the more useful signal. Over the last 45 years, Toronto has seen periods where transaction counts fell meaningfully, even while prices held relatively steady — and vice versa.

Historically, lower sales years were not signals of collapse. More often, they reflected hesitation. Buyers and sellers stepped back, reassessed, and waited for clarity. Those quieter periods frequently created conditions where prepared buyers had more choice, less competition, and greater negotiating leverage.

In other words, lower activity has often preceded opportunity — not decline.

Price Growth Was Uneven — and That’s the Point

One of the most striking insights from the long-term data is how uneven price growth actually is. There are extended stretches where average prices moved sideways or rose modestly, followed by shorter bursts of rapid appreciation.

Those flat years are easy to dismiss in real time. They feel frustrating. But historically, they’ve played a crucial role in resetting expectations and allowing income growth, population growth, and affordability dynamics to catch up.

For buyers trying to time the market, this matters. The most stable entry points often occurred during periods that felt boring — not during moments of optimism or urgency.

2008–2009: A Real Stress Test for Toronto Real Estate

The global financial crisis remains one of the most instructive stress tests in Toronto’s modern housing history. Sales volumes declined meaningfully, reflecting uncertainty and caution. Prices softened — but did not collapse.

What followed was equally important. The recovery was not instantaneous, but it was steady. Within a few years, prices had regained momentum, and transaction volumes normalized.

For buyers watching today’s market, this period reinforces an important lesson: even during global disruptions, Toronto real estate has shown an ability to stabilize and recover without long-term structural damage.

The Pandemic Era in Proper Context (2020–2025)

Recent price growth can feel extreme when viewed in isolation. But when placed against 45 years of data, the pandemic-era surge looks less like an anomaly and more like an accelerated cycle.

Sales volumes swung sharply during this period, reflecting both urgency and hesitation at different moments. Prices rose quickly, then pulled back as affordability constraints and higher borrowing costs set in — particularly as policy rates rose under the guidance of the Bank of Canada.

For buyers today, anchoring decisions to peak pricing years can be misleading. Long-term data suggests that pullbacks are part of normalization — not signals that the underlying market has fundamentally changed.

What 45 Years of Data Says About “Waiting It Out”

Many buyers believe the safest strategy is to wait until conditions feel perfect. Historically, that moment rarely arrives.

Looking across multiple downturns, buyers who waited for maximum clarity often faced higher prices by the time confidence returned. Those who entered during periods of uncertainty — with conservative assumptions and long-term plans — tended to benefit from both pricing stability and future growth.

This is why our advice has always been less about predicting the market and more about personal readiness. Buying when you have strong job security, predictable income, and confidence in your monthly payments has consistently mattered more than buying at the absolute bottom.

Markets move in cycles. Careers, incomes, and life stages do too. When those align — and the numbers work comfortably — history suggests that waiting for perfect headlines often introduces more risk than moving forward thoughtfully.

The real risk isn’t just market risk. It’s time risk — the cost of delaying decisions while prices, rents, and competition evolve.

How We Use This History When Advising Buyers Today

Having worked through multiple market cycles, we’ve seen firsthand how perspective changes strategy. Rather than trying to predict short-term movements, we focus on helping buyers understand where today fits within a longer arc.

That means prioritizing quality over timing, stress-testing affordability rather than chasing peaks, and recognizing that uncertainty often creates the best negotiating conditions.

History doesn’t tell us exactly what will happen next — but it does tell us how Toronto real estate tends to behave over time. And that perspective has consistently helped buyers make calmer, more confident decisions.

The Market Rewards Perspective, Not Predictions

Forty-five years of data tells a clear story. Toronto real estate has moved through booms, slowdowns, corrections, and recoveries — and yet the long-term trend remains intact.

For buyers trying to time the market, the real advantage comes from understanding cycles, not predicting headlines. Perspective, preparation, and patience have consistently mattered more than perfect timing.

If you’re thinking about buying and unsure how today’s market fits into the bigger picture, let’s talk. Understanding where we are in the cycle — and whether the move makes sense for you — can make all the difference.

Want to stay grounded as conditions change? Our monthly Toronto real estate market report breaks down what’s happening right now — sales, pricing, inventory, and momentum!

Jan 12

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Toronto Real Estate Market 2025 Year-End Review & Outlook

By Mark Savel Advice For Buyers, Advice For Sellers, Toronto

If 2024 was about uncertainty, 2025 was about adjustment.

The defining force this year wasn’t disappearing demand — it was inventory overwhelming the market’s ability to absorb it. Toronto averaged 25,548 active listings throughout 2025, a level that consistently exceeded what buyer demand could comfortably clear. Supply peaked mid-year at 31,603 active listings in June, then remained elevated through most of the fall before finally compressing into December.

Sales activity followed a familiar seasonal arc, averaging 5,228 sales per month, but that demand was spread thin across a much larger pool of listings. On paper, the market looked active. On the ground, it felt selective.

Buyers had options. Time. Leverage. Sellers could still transact — but only when expectations were realistic from the outset. This wasn’t a crash. It wasn’t a rebound either. It was a prolonged re-pricing environment, where leverage steadily and decisively shifted toward buyers.

Sales & Demand: Present, But Highly Filtered

Sales volumes showed resilience through the middle of the year. Monthly sales climbed from 3,847 in January to a peak stretch above 6,100 sales between May and July, confirming that buyers were not sitting on the sidelines entirely.

But that demand was fragile.

By December, sales slipped back to 3,697, nearly identical to January levels, despite clearer pricing, more transparency, and softer expectations. That bookend tells the real story of 2025: demand existed, but urgency never fully returned.

Where buyers did act decisively, three patterns stood out:

• Homes priced directly in line with recent comparable sales
• Listings that were clearly superior to competing inventory
• Properties positioned as good value, not best-case scenarios

Homes that missed those marks didn’t just sell later — they often sold for less, after extended exposure and multiple price reductions.

Inventory & Supply: The Dominant Force of 2025

If there was a single variable that shaped behaviour this year, it was supply.

New listings averaged 15,469 per month, with spring inflows particularly heavy. April through June alone added nearly 60,000 new listings to the market. Even as sales improved seasonally, absorption never caught up.

The impact compounded over time. Active listings rose from 17,157 in January to over 30,000 by May, fundamentally changing buyer psychology. And even when new listings slowed sharply — falling to just 5,299 in December — buyers were still choosing from 17,005 active listings.

That’s not scarcity by any definition.

As a result, buyers compared more homes before committing, conditional offers became routine again, and sellers lost the ability to rely on urgency or fear of missing out. Inventory didn’t need to keep rising forever to reshape the market. It simply needed to stay elevated long enough for psychology to change — which it did.

Pricing & Value: Softening, With Clear Winners and Losers

The average Toronto sale price in 2025 landed around $1.065M, but that headline number hides meaningful divergence beneath the surface.

Prices peaked in late spring, then softened steadily through the second half of the year, tracking directly with elevated inventory and rising buyer selectivity. Average Days on Market climbed from 38 days in Q2 to 57 days by Q4, reinforcing how patience — not urgency — defined buyer behaviour by year-end.

Well-priced homes often sold within their first listing window. Overpriced listings typically required multiple reductions. Final sale prices increasingly drifted away from original list prices.

By Q4, buyers weren’t negotiating off asking prices — they were negotiating off perceived value, often pointing to better alternatives still sitting on the market.

2025 by Housing Segment: Four Markets, One Theme

Detached Homes

Detached homes were the most resilient segment in 2025, but not immune.

Sales volumes held up better here than in other segments, particularly in established neighbourhoods where land value, schools, and long-term scarcity continued to support demand. Even so, elevated supply capped pricing momentum. Many detached listings required sharper initial pricing to generate traction.

Buyers were qualified, deliberate, and far less emotional than in past cycles. Overpriced detached homes frequently sat through multiple listing periods, while realistically priced homes attracted steady — if unspectacular — interest.

Semi-Detached Homes

Semi-detached homes felt affordability pressure more directly.

As a traditional step-up option, this segment was highly sensitive to interest-rate psychology. Demand existed, but buyers had more choice than usual, and that softened competition.

Well-presented semis in strong neighbourhoods continued to sell, but rarely with the multiple-offer dynamics sellers had come to expect. Pricing accuracy mattered enormously, making this segment a clear barometer of buyer confidence.

Townhouses

Townhouses experienced one of the more noticeable shifts in 2025.

Inventory growth, particularly in newer and suburban-adjacent projects, increased competition and reduced urgency. Buyers weighed townhouses more carefully against condos and smaller detached options, prioritizing layout, fees, and long-term livability.

Well-priced freehold townhouses performed reasonably well. Those that lacked differentiation or sat awkwardly between price points often struggled.

Condos

Condos were the most challenged segment of 2025.

Elevated supply, especially among one-bedroom and investor-oriented units, weighed heavily on pricing and absorption. Buyers had ample choice and often adopted a wait-and-see posture, particularly in buildings with high listing concentration.

While unique, well-located, or larger units still sold, competition was fierce and pricing pressure persistent. By year-end, condos increasingly led the market’s re-pricing rather than following it.

What This Meant for Buyers

For buyers, 2025 delivered something Toronto rarely offers: choice without chaos.

Elevated inventory created real leverage, particularly on listings that had been on the market 30 days or longer. Disciplined buyers were often rewarded with price reductions, seller concessions, and time to conduct proper due diligence.

That said, decisiveness still mattered. Homes that were clearly priced right — especially in strong neighbourhoods or turnkey condition — continued to attract competition.

The opportunity wasn’t universal leverage. It was selective leverage.

What This Meant for Sellers

For sellers, 2025 was a year where strategy mattered more than timing.

Listings that launched aligned with market reality often sold efficiently, even in a high-inventory environment. Those that chased aspirational pricing frequently became stale and paid for it later.

The data reinforced a difficult but consistent truth: waiting for the market to “come back” was rarely rewarded.

Carrying costs, competition, and buyer fatigue often outweighed the benefit of holding out, particularly in the second half of the year. Sellers who succeeded treated pricing as a proactive decision, not a fallback plan.

Short-Term Outlook Heading Into 2026

As the market moves into 2026, inventory remains the variable to watch.

New listings have slowed seasonally, but active supply is still high enough to keep buyers cautious and selective. Interest-rate sentiment may improve, but affordability constraints haven’t disappeared.

The most likely near-term scenario is continued sorting: well-priced homes transact, misaligned ones adjust, and leverage remains situational rather than universal.

Thinking About Buying or Selling in 2026?

Markets like this reward strategy, not guesswork.

If you’re planning to buy or sell in 2026 and want clarity around pricing, timing, and leverage, we’re happy to help you think it through. Whether that means stress-testing a sale price, identifying real buying opportunities, or simply understanding how current conditions affect your plans, our role is to give you clear, grounded advice—before you make any big decisions. Get in touch with us by sending a message below!

Dec 10

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November 2025 Toronto Real Estate Market Update

By Mark Savel Monthly Market Updates

According to the calendar, we’re officially in “hot chocolate and thicker jackets” season… and according to November’s numbers, the Toronto real estate market has also settled into full fall mode.

November wasn’t dramatic or chaotic. Instead, it felt like a market catching its breath—slower pace, fewer listings, and more thoughtful buyers. But tucked inside the overall cool-down was a standout story: freehold homes between $1M and $1.5M were buzzing with real activity. Let’s break down what actually happened.

What Happened in the Toronto Market This November?

Sales Slipped—But It’s Not the Plot Twist You Might Expect

Toronto recorded 5,010 sales, an 18.38% drop from October. On the surface, that might look like a steep fall… but November is historically a slower month as buyers shift into “holiday mode” and sellers decide to wait out the year.

The interesting part? Even with fewer deals happening, conversations with buyers stayed lively. This wasn’t a demand problem—it was a “let’s be picky” moment.

New Listings Dropped Harder Than Sales

Only 11,134 new listings hit the market in November—a sharp 30.7% drop. That’s the real story of the month. Sellers stepped back in a big way, which meant that buyers who were actively shopping suddenly had fewer homes to choose from.

When new listings fall faster than sales, the market tightens. And that’s exactly why prices held steady.

Even Active Listings Declined More Than Usual

Active inventory fell to 24,549—nearly 12% lower month-over-month.

Buyers who remained committed in late fall described the experience as “I’m ready… but there’s nothing to see.” Anyone who has been through a November search knows the feeling.

Prices Held Steady (All Things Considered)

Average Price: $1,039,458 (Down just 1.4%)

You might expect a bigger price swing with slower sales, but Toronto homes proved resilient. Prices barely budged and stayed right in line with where they’ve been for most of the year.

Think of it as the market saying: “Relax, nothing dramatic happening here.”

Days on Market Hit Their Longest Stretch This Year

The ‘Days on Market” rose to 56 days, the slowest pace we’ve seen in 2025.

This doesn’t mean homes aren’t selling—it means buyers are taking their time, comparing options, and running the numbers twice. But again… this was not the case everywhere.

The Breakout Segment: Freehold Homes Between $1M and $1.5M

Here’s where things get fun.

Detached & Semis in This Range Moved Faster Than the Market

Despite the overall slowdown, this pocket of the market stayed lively. In the 416:

Detached homes saw 600 sales
Semis hit 209 sales

Not record-breaking, but the energy was noticeably stronger. Freeholds that were move-in ready, offered rental potential, or were located near transit didn’t sit long.

Why? Because this price band continues to hit that Toronto sweet spot: attainable for move-up buyers, attractive to investors, and competitive enough to avoid the bidding-war chaos of earlier years.

Condos and Townhouses: Softer Demand, Stable Pricing

Condos Took a Breath After October’s Spike

Condo sales dipped to 880 (a 17.9% decline). No surprise here—condo buyers tend to be more rate-sensitive, and many are waiting for early 2026 announcements before locking in.

Yet, the average condo price actually inched up to $701,259. That’s the stability story again.

Townhouses Were a Mixed Bag

Townhouses landed at an average price of $870,793, a modest 2.2% dip.

Still, they continue to appeal to buyers who want the space of a freehold but not the price tag of one. The townhouse segment is very much alive—it’s just quieting down with the rest of the market.

Big Picture Trends Shaping Toronto’s Market Right Now

Mortgage Rates Are Finally Helping

After the Bank of Canada’s gradual cuts, many 5-year fixed rates now sit in the mid-4% to low-5% range. Buyers aren’t sprinting back, but confidence is noticeably higher than in 2023–2024.

If you talk to anyone who started a pre-approval a year ago and renewed it recently, they’ll tell you the same thing: “This feels manageable again.”

Consumers Are More Hopeful—But Still Cautious

Renewals at higher rates are still holding some would-be sellers back, especially those locked into ultra-low pandemic mortgages.

But newcomers, families, and investors are fueling the activity we do see—especially where rental income or multi-unit potential exists.

Policy Shifts Are Playing a Quiet but Important Role

With Bill 60 improving LTB timelines and clarifying the N12 process, landlords and investors are planning ahead with more certainty.

Meanwhile, Toronto’s ongoing gentle-density permissions are quietly changing how buyers view freehold lots—especially those with laneway or basement suite potential.

What Buyers Should Take Away From November 2025

Where the Opportunities Are

Freeholds under $1.5M: competitive, but not overwhelming.
Condos: stable prices + motivated sellers = room to negotiate.

What’s Likely Coming Next

Expect December to stay quiet—it always does. The real moment to watch is early 2026, when the Bank of Canada sets the tone for the year.

If confidence rises, expect buyers to move from browsing to buying.

Thinking of Buying or Selling?

Whether you’re upsizing, downsizing, or investing, November’s data tells us the same thing: this is still a market with opportunities—just not the loud, dramatic kind.

When you’re ready to talk strategy, we’ve got your back!

Nov 06

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October 2025 Toronto Real Estate Market Update

By Mark Savel Monthly Market Updates

After a quieter summer and a cautious start to the fall market, October delivered the clearest sign yet that Toronto’s real estate landscape is stabilizing. Sales activity continued to improve, inventory eased from September’s surge, and prices held firm month-over-month. While the market is not roaring forward, October showed a meaningful shift in sentiment as buyers re-engaged and competition tightened slightly across several segments.

Below is a full breakdown of how the market performed and what it means for buyers and sellers heading into the final stretch of the year.

October at a Glance

Sales: Up 9.76% month-over-month
New Listings: Down 16.57% month-over-month
Active Listings: Down 5.40% month-over-month
Average GTA Price: Down 0.47% month-over-month
Average Days on Market: 50 days (down from 51 in September)

GTA Market Overview

October delivered a second consecutive month of sales growth, rising nearly 10% from September. Buyers who had previously stepped to the sidelines over the summer began returning, encouraged by improved affordability expectations, increased negotiation power, and a sense that prices may have reached a temporary floor after months of softening.

Inventory also pulled back in October. New listings dropped more than 16% month-over-month, and active listings declined just over 5%. While supply remains higher than last year, the month-over-month easing helped bring the market closer to balance. With fewer new listings coming online, sellers benefited from slightly less competition than they faced in September.

Prices remained stable, dipping less than half a percent. Considering the broader downward pressure over the past year, October’s minimal price movement suggests values may be flattening as the market finds an equilibrium between what sellers are willing to accept and what buyers are prepared to pay.

Key Takeaway: October showed improving buyer engagement and tightening inventory – two key ingredients for price stabilization.

Key Market Drivers in October

Improved Buyer Confidence
The fall market saw stronger engagement as buyers adjusted to borrowing costs and gained clarity around pricing. This confidence translated into increased sales activity across both freehold and condo segments.

Inventory Eased After a September Surge
September’s spike in listings created temporary pressure on prices. With fewer new listings in October, buyers had less choice, helping restore some balance.

Price Stability Encouraged Move-Ups and First-Timers
Stable pricing helped both move-up buyers and first-time purchasers make more confident decisions, especially in the condo and semi-detached segments.

GTA Market Performance: Month-Over-Month

Sales increased by 9.76% (+546 sales)
New listings declined by 16.57% (-3,191 listings)
Active listings dropped by 5.40% (-1,586 listings)
Average price decreased slightly by 0.47% (-$5,005)
Days on Market improved from 51 to 50 days

Key Takeaway: The combination of rising sales and falling listings is a positive directional shift for market balance.

GTA Market Performance: Year-Over-Year

Sales down 7.81% from October 2024
New listings up 4.83% from last year
Active listings up 13.59% from last year
Average price down 7.12% year-over-year (-$80,843)
Days on Market up 16.28% from last year (+7 days)

Key Takeaway: While the month-to-month narrative has improved, year-over-year comparisons continue to show a softer market with more choice and lower prices than last fall.

416 Market Breakdown by Property Type

Sales Activity (Month-Over-Month)

Detached: Up 10.67% (+72 sales)
Semi-Detached: Up 22.90% (+49 sales)
Townhouse: Up 13.64% (+30 sales)
Condo: Up 14.04% (+132 sales)

Sales growth was seen across all housing types, marking one of the broadest improvements this year. Semi-detached homes led the month, followed closely by the condo sector, which regained momentum after a slower summer.

Key Takeaway: Buyer interest strengthened across all segments, showing renewed confidence in the market.

Pricing Trends (Month-Over-Month)

Detached: Down 3.97% (-$66,966)
Semi-Detached: Up 3.18% (+$37,582)
Townhouse: Down 4.19% (-$38,919)
Condo: Up 2.66% (+$18,126)

Freehold properties saw mixed performance. Detached and townhouse values experienced modest declines, while semis posted the strongest price gains of the month. Condos also saw average prices rise, supported by an uptick in demand and more motivated fall buyers.

Key Takeaway: Semi-detached homes stood out as the strongest performer, while condos continue to offer value-driven opportunities for buyers.

What This Means for Buyers

With inventory easing and sales strengthening, buyers considering a purchase in the next three to six months may want to take advantage of current conditions. Prices have shown signs of stabilizing, and as competition picks up, the negotiation leverage seen through the summer could begin to narrow.

Key Takeaway: Buyers still hold advantages, but conditions are shifting. Acting before inventory tightens further could be beneficial.

What This Means for Sellers

October offered sellers a more encouraging landscape than earlier in the fall. With fewer new listings entering the market, properly priced homes saw more consistent showings and engagement. Attractive, well-prepared properties continue to see the strongest results.

Key Takeaway: Sellers who position their home strategically and price with the current market will find more motivated buyers than in recent months.

Our Take

October marked an important turning point for Toronto real estate. While we’re not seeing dramatic price growth or frenzied bidding wars, the combination of stronger sales and softer listing numbers suggests the market is working toward balance. Confidence has improved, and both freehold and condo buyers are moving more decisively than they did over the summer.

Heading into the final months of the year, the market appears more stable and predictable than it has been for most of 2025. For both buyers and sellers, clarity is returning, and informed strategies are key. As always, reach out any time if you’d like to learn more!

Jul 07

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June 2025 Toronto Real Estate Market Update

By Mark Savel Monthly Market Updates

Real estate in Toronto took another small step toward affordability in June. With borrowing costs and average selling prices still trailing last year’s levels, more buyers are beginning to test the waters—even if many are still playing the waiting game.

The housing market showed further signs of recovery in June, as buyers benefited from a growing number of listings. With more inventory to choose from, many were able to negotiate below asking prices—an early sign that market leverage is beginning to tip back toward buyers.

Sales and Listings: Market Gains Traction (Sort Of)

Realtors reported 6,243 sales through the MLS System in June—a modest 2.4% dip compared to June 2024. However, new listings jumped 7.7% year-over-year, reaching 19,839 properties.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales were up compared to May 2025, while new listings were down. That combination—more buying activity and slightly less inventory—continues the tightening trend we saw take shape this spring.

Inventory vs. Demand: Are We Headed for Balance?

Month-over-month momentum looks promising, but economic jitters still weigh on decision-making. Many households are hesitant to dive in until they feel more secure about their jobs, rates, and the overall direction of the economy. Still, as inventory tapers and options dwindle, that hesitation could turn into competition sooner than later.

What’s Happening with Prices?

Condos Reach New High for 2025

While overall prices in the GTA trended downward, the condo segment quietly notched a win in June. The average condo price rose to $731,232—the highest it’s been all year. That’s up from $709,905 in May and significantly higher than where the year started at $691,039.

This steady upward trend—especially with June breaking the ceiling—could be an early signal of shifting demand. With lower entry points than detached homes and improved affordability, condos might be the segment to watch as momentum builds through summer.

Detached Prices Cool Off After Strong Start

Detached homes, meanwhile, saw a different trajectory in the first half of 2025. After peaking in February at $1,782,262, average prices for detached properties have gradually softened, settling at $1,641,868 in June. While still higher than January’s average of $1,579,386, the trend suggests a gradual cooldown from earlier highs.

Buyers in the detached segment may find more room to negotiate as prices ease off their earlier highs, especially with higher-carrying costs still weighing on the top end of the market.

Semi-Detached Homes Show Seasonal Resilience

Semi-detached properties had a relatively stable run through the first half of 2025. While they haven’t reached a new peak since March’s high of $1,337,498, June’s average price of $1,278,434 still sits comfortably above where the year began.

The numbers suggest a segment that’s holding firm despite broader market softening—offering a middle ground between affordability and space that continues to resonate with move-up buyers.

Townhomes Ride the Seasonal Wave

Townhomes had a mixed performance in the first half of 2025, with prices fluctuating month to month. After peaking in February at $1,028,339, the average townhome price slid back to $957,605 in June. While that’s still above January’s average of $941,893, the segment appears more sensitive to broader affordability pressures.

For buyers, this could present a timely opportunity—especially for those seeking more space than a condo offers but without stretching to a detached price point.

Overall Price Summary

June’s average selling price landed at $1,101,691, representing a 5.4% drop year-over-year. The MLS Home Price Index Composite Benchmark also dipped 5.5% compared to June 2024. Month-over-month? Both the average price and HPI edged slightly lower from May.

This downward pressure on pricing isn’t new—it’s been with us for several months—but it continues to create an entry point for buyers who were previously priced out.

Price Chart – YoY and MoM Breakdown

Metric	June 2024	May 2025	June 2025	% Change YoY	% Change MoM
Average Price	$1,164,714	$1,110,905	$1,101,691	-5.4%	-0.8%

What’s Fueling (or Delaying) the Recovery?

The market isn’t just reacting to supply and demand—it’s heavily influenced by macroeconomic factors. According to TRREB CIO Jason Mercer, a firm U.S. trade deal and two more expected rate cuts could help “make monthly mortgage payments more comfortable for average GTA households.” That added affordability, paired with improved consumer confidence, could push the recovery into higher gear.

But as of now, buyers are taking their time. Inflation progress has been choppy, and many are still skeptical that rates will come down fast enough to offset homeownership risks.

What Buyers and Sellers Should Know Right Now

For Buyers:

More listings mean more choice—and leverage.
Sellers are increasingly open to negotiation.
Lower borrowing costs = better affordability, even if only modestly improved.

For Sellers:

Price competitively to attract attention.
The tightening trend could benefit well-prepared listings.
With some buyers still on the sidelines, it’s not a frenzy—but serious shoppers are out there.

Final Thoughts: Recovery in Progress, but Far from Over

June continued the pattern we’ve seen throughout spring—a cautious, buyer-empowered market where affordability is slowly improving, but uncertainty still clouds the outlook. The next few months will be crucial. If confidence improves and rates continue to ease, Toronto’s real estate market could be poised for a steadier rebound – but who knows!

Curious what this means for your next move? Reach out by dropping us a message below—we’ll help you navigate the numbers and the nuance.